Day: 5 December 2023

Wei Li – Global Chief Investment Strategist of BlackRock Investment Institute together with Christopher Kaminker – Head of Sustainable Research and Analytics, Chris Weber – Head of Climate Research and Jessica Thye – Sustainable Research and Analytics all forming part of the BlackRock Investment Institute, share their insights on global economy, markets and geopolitics. Their views are theirs alone and are not intended to be construed as investment advice.

Key Points

Transition themes: We track the low-carbon transition to identify investment opportunities and risks. We’re eyeing three related themes at the annual UN climate conference.

Market backdrop: U.S. stocks last week hit their highest level of the year, and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell lower. We expect near-term volatility and rising yields in the long term.

Week ahead: U.S. payrolls data this week will show if jobs growth is still slowing. We think the U.S. can only sustain a fraction of recent job growth without inflation resurging.

The low-carbon transition is one of five mega forces, or structural shifts, we track for investment risks and opportunities. We’re following three investment themes at the UN climate conference (COP28) in Dubai. First, climate resilience – society’s ability to prepare for and withstand climate risks – is an underappreciated theme, we think. Second, we eye progress on unlocking climate finance in emerging markets. Third, we watch for new policy plans that could shape the transition path.

We highlight climate resilience first because it is an emerging theme not yet fully appreciated by investors. We think companies that create and adopt products and services that boost climate resilience will become a more widely recognized opportunity. Why? The number of U.S. climate events with damages above $1 billion has steadily climbed over the past roughly four decades. See the yellow bars in the chart. As such risks increase, we are seeing early signs of growing demand for climate resilience solutions. Case in point: Demand for home air-filtration appliances in the northeastern U.S. spiked during the Canadian wildfires in early 2023. Emerging markets (EMs) are set to bear some of these risks more acutely given greater exposure to physical climate damage. Yet they face difficulties in raising financing needed for the transition. We think this also offers an investment opportunity and is key to tracking the transition’s overall speed and shape.

The IPCC has reported persistent increases in average annual temperatures, precipitation and sea levels. The frequency and intensity of acute weather events, such as extreme heat and widespread floods, has also increased. We see policy and regulation driving the growth of the market for resilience products. Any COP28 agreement on a global plan for climate adaption could spur new policy. Some incentives to invest in resilience are already in place, including $50 billion from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and over $20 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act. Other support comes from building code updates in the U.S. and Europe explicitly focusing on improving climate resilience. 

EM financing gap

We are closely watching policy developments that could unlock investment opportunities in EMs. They play a pivotal role in the global reduction in carbon emissions, in our view. Why? We estimate EM will account for over half of energy demand and carbon emissions by 2050. Yet transition-related investment in EMs will likely be lower than in DMs due to a higher cost of capital from greater perceived investment risk, and greater exposure to physical climate damage. We think closing the financing gap would require significant public sector reforms and private sector innovation, resulting in greater “blending” of public and private capital. We think successful reforms could see low-carbon investment in EMs rise on average by a further $200 billion a year – or $4 trillion overall – above our base view of a major increase in investment between 2030-2050.

Evolving energy use

We think COP28 will also provide further details about policies that are likely to influence how the mix of energy use evolves – and the investment opportunities. We see policy, technology and consumer preferences driving an accelerating shift to renewable energy in DMs. 2023 has seen record growth of about 50-70% for renewable energy, according to the International Energy Agency. Countries at COP28 look poised to agree to a goal to triple capacity by 2030. We think further policy support may make the goal achievable – and yet the S&P global clean energy index is down about 28% year to date, LSEG data show. Even with this growth in renewables, meeting global energy demand will rely on traditional energy for some time – and we think it can outperform at times, especially when there are supply-demand mismatches.

Our bottom line

We monitor COP28 for signs of growth in transition-related investment themes. We see granular opportunities in public companies that produce climate resilience solutions across sectors. Solutions like early monitoring systems to predict floods or retrofitting buildings to better withstand extreme weather make the technology and industrial sectors stand out to us. And we think reforms could make it easier for private market players to fill the EM financing gap.

Market backdrop

Last week, the S&P 500 closed at its highest level this year after rising roughly 9% in November – the largest monthly gain in 16 months. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slid lower to near 4.30%, with its November drop of more than 50 basis points marking the largest monthly fall in 12 years. We expect further volatility for bonds in the near term as policy rates peak. We think long-term yields will rise again as investors demand more compensation for the risk of holding long-term bonds.

The U.S. payrolls report for November is in focus this week. We are looking for signs that job growth is slowing further as the post-pandemic normalization runs its course. Structural labor shortages as the U.S. population ages means the economy will only be able to sustain a fraction of recent job growth without stoking inflation again, in our view.

Week Ahead

Dec. 5: Japan CPI; China PMI

Dec. 7: China trade data

Dec. 8: U.S. payrolls; University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey

Dec. 9: China CPI and PPI

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BlackRock’s Key risks & Disclaimers:

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of 4^th December, 2023 and may change. The information and opinions are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This material may contain ’forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.

The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal. International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation, and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging/developing markets or smaller capital markets.

Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL.

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MeDirect Disclaimers:

This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from  BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited. No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

The financial instruments discussed in the document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.

If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest in a mutual fund should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Information Document (KID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.

Franklin Templeton’s Notes from the Trading Desk offers a weekly overview of what our professional traders and analysts are watching in the markets. As part of Templeton Global Investments Group, the European equity desk is manned by a team of professionals based in Edinburgh, Scotland, whose job it is to monitor the markets around the world. Their views are theirs alone and are not intended to be construed as investment advice.

The digest

Last week was another strong week for global equities. The MSCI World Index was up 0.8%, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index was up 1.4%, the S&P 500 Index was up 0.8% and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a 0.18% gain. November was a very strong month for global equities, with the MSCI World Index up 9.2% for the month.

Focus last week was on the peak interest-rate narrative again, with inflation prints coming in lower than expected. Also, a series of other macroeconomic datapoints showed some weakening in the US economy which, for now, seems to take us back to the “bad news is good news” logic. With that, central-bank chatter was more dovish on both sides of the Atlantic. Indicators showed that market sentiment remained bullish again last week, with the CNN Fear and Greed Index still firmly in “Greed” territory.

November month-end

November was an interesting month for global markets. Equities and bonds were strong, whilst the US dollar and volatility indices were down. The 9.2% gain from the MSCI World Index was its biggest monthly gain since November 2020 (when news of COVID-19 vaccines circulated). Of course, this was on the back of October, the worst month of the year for global equities. In terms of credit, global bonds delivered their second-best month ever. What drove this was a firming of the view that we are now at peak central bank rates, with the possibility that rate cuts may be forthcoming.

Despite the upturn in market sentiment, it is clear to us that the global economy is not yet through the woods with regards to avoiding a recession; hence, chatter around potential rate cuts isn’t necessarily all positive.

In November, European stocks notched their best monthly performance since January, as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed up 6.5% on the month. Growth stocks outperformed value, with technology, real estate and retail the top-performing sectors. We saw plenty of short covering as well last month. The XOVER Index (which comprises 75 equally weighted credit default swaps on the most liquid sub-investment grade European corporate entities) had its largest monthly tightening of the year so far, with the index down over 17% on the month.

In the United States, the S&P 500 Index closed November up 8.9%, its seventh-best month this century, recovering all of its three-month losses. The Nasdaq was the standout index, up 10.7% on the month. At the same time, the US dollar saw its biggest monthly drop in a year, with the US Dollar Index down 3.0%. The Indian rupee was the only major currency lower vs. the dollar last month.

In bonds, the US 10-year Treasury tightened by 60 basis points (bps) in November, representing its largest monthly basis-point move since 2008. Volatility fell sharply in November, with the VIX hitting sub-13 through the month, its lowest level since COVID-19. Whilst not quite at recent lows, volatility in the bond market also fell in November too, dropping 9% on the month.

In Asia, the Nikkei continued its march higher, up 8.5% in November, pushing it back towards the recent highs made earlier in the year and indeed levels last seen in the 1990s. During the month, fresh stimulus measures from the Japanese government offset any concerns around future Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening.

In contrast, Chinese equities were left behind in November, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.5% and the Hang Seng Index down 0.2%. The Chinese government announced some stimulus measures, but that was not enough to galvanise the markets, with the real estate sector still a concern. Chinese macro data was also mixed through November.

Week in review

Europe

European stocks finished last week higher and closed out with the best monthly performance since January. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was up 1.4% last week and finished up 6.5% in November. The peak-rate narrative was central again to the market’s strength. European inflation data has been lower than expected, with the November European Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) report coming in at 3.6%, which was lower than anticipated. French CPI was at 3.4, whilst German CPI came in at 3.2%.

At the same time, there are further signs of a slowing European economy. Germany’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to the highest level in 2.5 years, coming in at 5.9% in November. Meanwhile, French gross domestic product (GDP) slipped into contraction in the third quarter (down 0.1%). Central bank rhetoric was on the dovish side last week, with Bank of England Governor Bailey describing the fall in UK inflation as “very good news”, whilst European Central Bank (ECB) member Francois Villeroy commented that disinflation in Europe is happening faster than expected.

With that backdrop, the market is now fully pricing in a 25 bps ECB rate cut for April and 120 bps of cuts by October 2024. Some may argue that if we need over 100 bps of cuts in the next 12 months, then there is something more concerning going on in the European economy.

In terms of sectors, cyclicals outperformed defensives overall, with real estate stocks notching a strong month, along with financial services. With cyclicals favoured, basic resources stocks were also stronger last week, whilst defensives lagged.

United States

US equities ground higher again last week, in what was a relatively quiet week for impactful newsflow. The S&P 500 Index closed at its best level since March 2022, up 0.8% on the week. The key market themes of peak rates, disinflation and a soft landing rumbled on in the background.

Last week there was some focus on Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, who is a known hawk, as he stated that he is “increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%” but also that he was “reasonably confident” this could happen without a sharp increase in unemployment. He also hinted that rates cuts were possible if inflation turns lower. Yet, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments were more in line with a “higher for longer” narrative, as he said that calls for rate cuts were premature and that Federal Open Market Committee members were focused on keeping policy restrictive until the committee is convinced the 2% inflation target was in sight.

In terms of sector moves, it was no surprise to see real estate stocks outperform last week, along with materials and industrials. Communication services lagged. Oil prices fell 2% on the week, as OPEC+ pledged to cut an additional one million barrels, highlighting weakening demand. US oil inventory data rose for a sixth straight week to the highest levels since July, further signalling a weakening in demand.

In terms of US data, the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) release came in at 3.0% vs.  3.4% previous, indicating a deceleration in consumer spending. The Fed’s Beige Book complemented the idea of a pullback in discretionary spending, showing a slowdown in economic activity.

Asia

It was another somewhat muted week for Asian markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific closed the week up 0.18%, with India’s market the outperformer, up 2.42% last week amidst stronger September GDP data, coupled with overall global sentiment. Hong Kong’s market was the underperformer, down 4.15% amidst disappointing corporate earnings and China’s economic slowdown and property market slump.

Japan

The Nikkei fell slightly last week, closing down 0.58% on the back of some profit taking. Having said that, the Nikkei did briefly touch a year-to-date high on Monday, before selling off over the rest of the week. Japanese government bonds traded up last week, as the yield sold off on the back of dovish remarks from Fed policymakers amidst signs of slowing economic activity. The yen was stronger against the dollar as anticipation grew that the Fed could start cutting rates soon.

Last week, we heard a few dovish noises from the BoJ board members (supporting continued loose policy), as they try to dampen speculation that they will soon pivot away from their dovish policy stance 2% yield curve control target. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reiterated the government’s commitment to taking all necessary measures to cushion the negative impact of recent price hikes. During the week, Japan’s parliament enacted an extra budget for the current business year to help fund the fiscal stimulus.

Sector-wise, semiconductors outperformed last week, with accelerating inflow into tech names on the back of declining rates. Shippers were also stronger after the Baltic Exchange Dry Index surged six days in a row.

China

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31% last week on the back of some mixed economic data which continues to concern investors. Headlining last week, we had President Xi Jinping’s visit to Shanghai, where he urged the Yangtze Delta River region to support the private economy, foreign investment and technological innovation. Economic data was mixed last week, with contracting manufacturing numbers in the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for October, but higher-than-expected Caixin/S&P Global numbers, as new orders hit their best level since June.

Also, the government published its 25-point plan to get the economy moving again, with support packages for the private sector. The People’s Bank of China released its third-quarter monetary policy implementation report, which showed a change of focus towards improving the efficiency and structure of loans. The latest report highlighted concerns that China’s recovery has yet to take off, as the recent property sector slowdown has curbed demand across the economy.

On the property front, the value of new home sales by the country’s top 100 developers fell 29.6% in November from a year earlier, accelerating from the 27.5% drop in October, according to the China Real Estate Information Corp. Looking ahead, the Politburo meeting & Central Economic Work Conference will be held soon.

Hong Kong

Stocks in Hong Kong declined amidst disappointing corporate earnings and China’s economic slowdown and property market slump. Chinese developers sold off. It was also reported that state owned enterprise banks held meetings with developers which failed to make much headway, dampening sentiment further. The auto sector was under pressure, after BYD announced more price cuts, which ignited concerns of intensified industry competition into year-end, while vehicle inventories continue to rise. Tech giants also weakened.

Week ahead

Key Events
Monday 4 December: Riksbank Minutes
Tuesday 5 December: US ISM-Services
Wednesday 6 December: Germany Factory Orders
Thursday 7 December: Germany Industrial Production
Friday 8 December: US November employment report; China CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI)

Monday 4 December

• Sweden Riksbank Minutes
• Spain Unemployment Change
• China Caixin China PMI-Services
• US Factory Orders and Durable/Cap Goods Orders

Tuesday 5 December

• France Industrial Production
• Eurozone ECB one-year/three-year CPI Expectation; PPI
• US PMI-Services (revision) and PMI-Composite (revision); JOLTS Job Openings, ISM-Services and ISM-Services Prices Paid/Employment/New Orders

Wednesday 6 December

• Germany Factory Orders
• Eurozone Retail Sales
• China Trade Balance
• US Mortgage Applications; ADP Employment Change; Nonfarm Productivity (revision), Unit Labor Costs (revision) and Trade Balance

Thursday 7 December

• Germany Industrial Production
• Eurozone GDP (revision)
• US Challenger Job Cuts; Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims; Wholesale Trade Sales/Inventories; Household Change in Net Worth; Consumer Credit

Friday 8 December

• China CPI and PPI
• US November Employment Report (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and labour force participation rate and underemployment rate); University of Michigan Sentiment and Expectations

 

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Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future performance. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realised.

This article reflects the analysis and opinions of Franklin Templeton’s European Trading Desk as of 4th December 2023, and may vary from the analysis and opinions of other investment teams, platforms, portfolio managers or strategies at Franklin Templeton. Because market and economic conditions are often subject to rapid change, the analysis and opinions provided may change without notice. An assessment of a particular country, market, region, security, investment or strategy is not intended as an investment recommendation, nor does it constitute investment advice. Statements of fact are from sources considered reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their completeness or accuracy. This article does not provide a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry or security. Nothing in this document may be relied upon as investment advice or an investment recommendation. The companies named herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton. Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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MeDirect Disclaimers:

This information has been accurately reproduced, as received from Franklin Templeton Investment Management Limited (FTIML). No information has been omitted which would render the reproduced information inaccurate or misleading. This information is being distributed by MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to its customers. The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or other professional advice nor does it commit MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc to any obligation whatsoever. The information available in this document is not intended to be a suggestion, recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell, any securities and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

The financial instruments discussed in the document may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein.

If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. A commission or sales fee may be charged at the time of the initial purchase for an investment. Any income you get from this investment may go down as well as up. This product may be affected by changes in currency exchange rate movements thereby affecting your investment return therefrom. The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance. Any decision to invest in a mutual fund should always be based upon the details contained in the Prospectus and Key Information Document (KID), which may be obtained from MeDirect Bank (Malta) plc.