The market’s muted response to the U.S. tariff pause extension highlights the limits of rapid change, reinforcing our overweight in U.S. equities while emphasizing alpha opportunities through active macro and security-level risk management amid ongoing uncertainty.
Markets are focused this week on key data from China and the US, the start of earnings season, and the G20 summit, amid renewed trade tensions, mixed central bank signals, and lingering concerns over weak global demand.
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Despite major policy shifts, we believe structural limits on trade and debt, along with transformative forces like AI, support a risk-on stance and an overweight in U.S. equities, as outlined in BlackRock’s 2025 Midyear Outlook.
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Trade tensions remain in focus this week as the 90-day tariff pause ends, while markets digest key global events—including the BRICS Summit, ECB meeting, and US data—with sentiment shaped by rising fiscal concerns, mixed labour signals, and geopolitical developments.
Rapid U.S. policy shifts—ranging from tariff decisions to potential tax cuts and regulatory reforms—are boosting investor sentiment and support an overweight in equities, while persistent inflation and deficit worries keep long-term Treasuries underweight.
Markets enter a key week with the ECB Forum and US jobs report in focus, as central banks weigh weak data, tariff risks, and mixed global signals—while easing geopolitical tensions and dovish Fed commentary have boosted risk appetite and raised expectations for rate cuts.
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Geopolitical fragmentation is accelerating amid global shocks and shifting security dynamics, driving up defense spending—especially in Europe and Asia—and prompting an active, region-specific investment approach to this evolving mega force.
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